A Phase 2, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Belumosudil in Subjects With Moderate/Severe Chronic Plaque Psoriasis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (240 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-02-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: priorbarriermonths aftereffectivechemotherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: psoriasisplaquescreeningaminotransferaseevaluate the
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 30% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 10 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Safety and Tolerability Study of Belumosudil (KD025) Treatment in Subjects With Moderately Severe Psoriasis Vulgaris NCT02106195 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• A Dose Ranging Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of GSK2586184 in Patients With Chronic Plaque Psoriasis NCT01782664 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of Single and Repeat Topical Administration of BOS-475 in Healthy Subjects and Patients With Psoriasis NCT03960450 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Dose-Finding Study of GSK2894512 Cream in Subjects With Plaque Psoriasis NCT02564042 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, Pharmacodynamics, and Efficacy of Repeat Doses of GSK2982772 in Subjects With Psoriasis NCT02776033 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.