Treatment Outcome in Major Depressive Disorder

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (145 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Primary purpose: other (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 59.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: depressivemddbreastantidepressantto determine
  Phrases that lowered it: investigate theto investigateimagingmoderatedrug
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 36074 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 65 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 28 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 133192 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 181 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Neural Responses Induced by Antidepressant Effects NCT02674529 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• The Serotonin Transporter Availability for Prognosing Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) Treatment and Detecting MDD NCT02473783 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Effects of Cognitive Behavioral Therapy on Brain Serotonin Activity in People With Depression NCT00641108 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Imaging Antidepressant vs. Cognitive Behavior Therapy Effects on Unipolar Depression NCT00787501 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Canadian Biomarker Integration Network for Depression (CAN-BIND) - Validation Study NCT04162522 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.