Filgotinib Versus Placebo in Adults With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) Who Have an Inadequate Response to Biologic Disease-modifying Anti-rheumatic Drug(s) (DMARDs) Treatment

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-06-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placebokeyto assessassess themay apply
  Phrases that lowered it: jointraevaluate theto evaluatecount
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 108 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Filgotinib in Combination With Methotrexate in Adults With Moderately to Severely Active Rheumatoid Arthritis Who Have an Inadequate Response to Methotrexate NCT02889796 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• Filgotinib Alone and in Combination With Methotrexate (MTX) in Adults With Moderately to Severely Active Rheumatoid Arthritis Who Are Naive to MTX Therapy NCT02886728 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Filgotinib in Participants With Active Psoriatic Arthritis Who Have an Inadequate Response or Are Intolerant to Biologic DMARD Therapy NCT04115839 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials terminated
• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Filgotinib in Participants With Active Psoriatic Arthritis Who Are Naive to Biologic DMARD Therapy NCT04115748 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Assess Efficacy and Safety of Filgotinib in Active Psoriatic Arthritis NCT03101670 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.