Filgotinib Alone and in Combination With Methotrexate (MTX) in Adults With Moderately to Severely Active Rheumatoid Arthritis Who Are Naive to MTX Therapy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-05-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: keymay applycriteria mayprotocol definedother protocol
  Phrases that lowered it: rajointmtxcountcombination
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 104 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 295 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Filgotinib in Combination With Methotrexate in Adults With Moderately to Severely Active Rheumatoid Arthritis Who Have an Inadequate Response to Methotrexate NCT02889796 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• Filgotinib Versus Placebo in Adults With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) Who Have an Inadequate Response to Biologic Disease-modifying Anti-rheumatic Drug(s) (DMARDs) Treatment NCT02873936 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess Efficacy and Safety of Filgotinib in Active Psoriatic Arthritis NCT03101670 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Filgotinib in Participants With Active Psoriatic Arthritis Who Are Naive to Biologic DMARD Therapy NCT04115748 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials terminated
• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Filgotinib in Participants With Active Psoriatic Arthritis Who Have an Inadequate Response or Are Intolerant to Biologic DMARD Therapy NCT04115839 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.