Gemcitabine and Nab-Paclitaxel vs Gemcitabine, Nab-Paclitaxel, Durvalumab and Tremelimumab as 1st Line Therapy in Metastatic Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-03-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticgemcitabinepancreaticpatients mustradiation
  Phrases that lowered it: hcvhepatitisuppernormal14 days
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 16 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 9504 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 45912 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Durvalumab and Tremelimumab With Gemcitabine or Gemcitabine/Cisplatin Compared to Gemcitabine/Cisplatin in CCA Patients NCT03473574 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Pembrolizumab and Pelareorep in Treating Patients With Advanced Pancreatic Cancer NCT03723915 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
• Study Evaluating NEOadjuvant Immunotherapy in Resectable PANCreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma NCT03979066 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
• Immune Checkpoint Inhibition (Tremelimumab and/or MEDI4736) in Combination With Radiation Therapy in Patients With Unresectable Pancreatic Cancer NCT02311361 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• IO102-IO103 in Combination With Pembrolizumab as First-line Treatment for Patients With Metastatic NSCLC, SCCHN, or mUBC NCT05077709 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.