Durvalumab and Tremelimumab With Gemcitabine or Gemcitabine/Cisplatin Compared to Gemcitabine/Cisplatin in CCA Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-03-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerhormonehormonaltransplantationtherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: hcvrheumatoidarthritiscombinationnaïve
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 46.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 10103 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 19 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Durvalumab and Tremelimumab With Platinum-based Chemotherapy in Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) NCT04989218 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated
• Improve Checkpoint-blockade Response in Advanced Urothelial Cancer NCT03871036 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Immunotherapy With Durva and Treme With or Without Capecitabine in Adjuvant Treatment for Biliary Tract Cancer NCT05239169 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Tremelimumab and Durvalumab in Treating Patients With Colorectal Cancer With Liver Metastases That Can Be Removed by Surgery NCT02754856 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• ......SMARTEST Trial...... NCT05380713 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.