......SMARTEST Trial......

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-12-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: radiationsurgerysyndromeheartbrain
  Phrases that lowered it: participantshcvscreeningclinical studyhormone
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 95 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 105 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 489 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 152489 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 17031 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Trial of Durvalumab and Tremelimumab in Combination With SBRT in Patients With Metastatic Cancer NCT03212469 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• An Open-Label, Multi-Centre, Study to Assess the Safety of Fixed-Dose Durvalumab + Tremelimumab Combination Therapy or Durvalumab Monotherapy in Advanced Solid Malignancies. NCT03084471 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• Immunotherapy and SBRT for Metastatic Head and Neck Carcinomas NCT03283605 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• SGI-110 Plus Durvalumab/Tremelimumab in SCLC NCT03085849 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• A Phase 2 Study of Durvalumab in Combination With Tremelimumab in Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma NCT03075527 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.