Celecoxib With Chemotherapy in Localized, Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 33% for any early termination, 19% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patients mustregistrationinstitutionaltumorheart
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmacarcinomaaccordinginvestigatorpresence
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 53 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 221 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 117530 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 15054 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 79.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Chemotherapy and Radiation Therapy in Treating Patients With Stage II or Stage III Bladder Cancer That Was Removed by Surgery NCT00777491 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Sacituzumab Govitecan Before Radical Cystectomy for the Treatment of Non-Urothelial Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer NCT05581589 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
• BLASST-1 (Bladder Cancer Signal Seeking Trial): Nivolumab, Gemcitabine, and Cisplatin in Treatment of Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer (MIBC) Undergoing Cystectomy NCT03294304 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Neoadjuvant Gemcitabine and Fractionated, Weekly Cisplatin For Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer and Patients Not Candidates For High Dose Cisplatin NCT02030574 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Gemcitabine, Cisplatin, and Sunitinib (GC-S) as Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Patients With Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer NCT00847015 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.