Nab-paclitaxel Plus Gemcitabine as First-line Therapy for Cisplatin-ineligible or Cisplatin-incurable Advanced Urothelial Carcinoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 36% for any early termination, 26% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-05-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cisplatincancerchemotherapypatientgemcitabine
  Phrases that lowered it: diseasesbasedlocaldoses ofnon
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 7 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 9446 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 47408 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 130 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Trial of Paclitaxel Plus Gemcitabine and Cisplatin in Bladder Cancer NCT02560038 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Cabazitaxel in Patients With Urothelial Carcinoma Who Have Disease Progression Following Platinum-Based Chemotherapy NCT01437488 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Clinical Trial With Vinflunine as Maintenance Therapy in Metastatic Urothelial Cancer NCT01529411 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• Gemcitabine Hydrochloride, Cisplatin, and Temsirolimus as First-Line Therapy in Treating Patients With Locally Advanced and/or Metastatic Transitional Cell Cancer of the Urothelium NCT01090466 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Treatment of Locally Advanced or Metastatic Transitional Cell Carcinoma With Cabazitaxel NCT01668459 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.