A Study of Mirikizumab (LY3074828) in Participants With Active Crohn's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-02-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectplacebo controlledbowelin subjectsto screening
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantefficacysafetyevaluate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1054 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 150 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Mirikizumab (LY3074828) in Participants With Crohn's Disease NCT03926130 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of Risankizumab in Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Crohn's Disease Who Failed Prior Biologic Treatment NCT03104413 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• A Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Risankizumab in Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Crohn's Disease NCT03105128 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• A Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of Oral Etrasimod in the Treatment of Adult Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Crohn's Disease NCT04173273 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of AIN457 in Moderate to Severe Active Crohn's Disease NCT00584740 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.