A Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of Risankizumab in Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Crohn's Disease Who Failed Prior Biologic Treatment

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (213 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-05-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: diagnosismoderate toscorebito severe
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsand safetyefficacy andsafety ofparticipant
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 95 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 16 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 120 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Risankizumab in Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Crohn's Disease NCT03105128 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• A Study of Mirikizumab (LY3074828) in Participants With Crohn's Disease NCT03926130 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• A Multicenter, Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo Controlled Induction Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Risankizumab in Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT03398148 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• A Study of Mirikizumab (LY3074828) in Participants With Active Crohn's Disease NCT02891226 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• A Long Term Extension Trial of BI 655066/ABBV-066 (Risankizumab), in Patients With Moderately to Severely Active Crohn's Disease NCT02513459 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.