4-drug Nerve Block Versus Plain Local Anesthetic for Knee and Hip Arthroplasty Analgesia in Veterans

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (234 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-08-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: typekidneydiabetestransplantstatus
  Phrases that lowered it: kneearthroplastyphysicalhipundergoing
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 155159 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 70.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Mepivacaine Versus Low-Dose Bupivacaine For Primary Total Hip and Knee Arthroplasty NCT03838874 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• 0.25% Bupivacaine Versus a Mixture of 0.25% Bupivacaine and 1.3 % Liposomal Bupivacaine in Patients Undergoing Tka NCT03303794 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials terminated
• Comparison of Two Techniques of Locoregional Analgesia in Total Knee Prosthesis Surgery : Block to the Adductor Channel Versus Peri-articular Local Infiltrations NCT03620136 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Femoral Nerve Block With Liposome Bupivacaine for Postsurgical Analgesia Following Total Knee Arthroplasty NCT01683071 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Single-shot Adductor Canal Block With Levobupivacaine and Dexmedetomidine in Total Knee Arthroplasty NCT04968392 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.