Mepivacaine Versus Low-Dose Bupivacaine For Primary Total Hip and Knee Arthroplasty

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,012 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-10-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: livercirrhosism2subjectsacute
  Phrases that lowered it: healthydayskneetrialpatients
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 905 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 72.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 0.05 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 256 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Liposome Bupivacaine for ANKLE Blocks NCT03106545 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• Femoral Nerve Block With Liposome Bupivacaine for Postsurgical Analgesia Following Total Knee Arthroplasty NCT01683071 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• 0.25% Bupivacaine Versus a Mixture of 0.25% Bupivacaine and 1.3 % Liposomal Bupivacaine in Patients Undergoing Tka NCT03303794 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials terminated
• Phase 3 Adductor Canal Block With EXPAREL in Subjects Undergoing Primary Unilateral Total Knee Arthroplasty NCT05139030 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• 4-drug Nerve Block Versus Plain Local Anesthetic for Knee and Hip Arthroplasty Analgesia in Veterans NCT02891798 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.