Phase II MEDI4736 in Combination With Chemotherapy for First-Line Treatment of Unresectable Mesothelioma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 42% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-06-29, after 2017-06-13 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-06-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerbowelpatients musttumorantibody
Phrases that lowered it: participantlinecombinationtypeclinical -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 75% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 29.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 4 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 75% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 272 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 222 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 98.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 29.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- durvalumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- DuRvalumab With chEmotherapy as First Line treAtment in Advanced Pleural Mesothelioma NCT04334759 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
- Diadem to Investigate the Activity and Safety of Durvalumab NCT04115111 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- Nivolumab in Patients With Recurrent Malignant Mesothelioma NCT02497508 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
- CheckpOiNt Blockade For Inhibition of Relapsed Mesothelioma NCT03063450 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
- A Clinical Trial of Durvalumab (MEDI4736) as 1st Line Therapy in Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer Patients NCT02879617 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.