Diadem to Investigate the Activity and Safety of Durvalumab
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 34% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-05-16, after 2018-10-17 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-05-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: carcinomacanceradvancedcellstage
Phrases that lowered it: arthritisrheumatoidand safetysafety ofinvestigate -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 20.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 1771 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
-
Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 48 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 20.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 11 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1771 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1147 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 93.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 24.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- durvalumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Phase II MEDI4736 in Combination With Chemotherapy for First-Line Treatment of Unresectable Mesothelioma NCT02899195 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- DuRvalumab With chEmotherapy as First Line treAtment in Advanced Pleural Mesothelioma NCT04334759 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
- Nivolumab Monotherapy or Nivolumab Plus Ipilimumab, for Unresectable Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma (MPM) Patients NCT02716272 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
- Nivolumab in Patients With Recurrent Malignant Mesothelioma NCT02497508 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
- A Study of Pembrolizumab in Combination With Cisplatin and Pemetrexed in Advanced Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma (MPM) (MK-3475-A17) NCT04153565 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.