Phase 2 Durvalumab (Medi4736) for Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) Refactory Urothelial Carcinoma in Situ of the Bladder

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 21% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-09-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancercarcinomaqtinductionprior
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipants90diseaseshypertension
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 28.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 32 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 140 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Durvalumab And Radiation Therapy Followed by Adjuvant Durvalumab in Patients With Urothelial Cancer (T2-4 N0-2 M0) of the Bladder NCT02891161 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
• Durvalumab and Standard Chemotherapy Before Surgery in Treating Patients With Variant Histology Bladder Cancer NCT03912818 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
• Durvalumab Plus Olaparib Administered Prior to Surgery of Resectable Urothelial Bladder Cancer (NEODURVARIB) NCT03534492 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Neoadjuvant and Adjuvant Durvalumab in Combination With Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Patients With Operable Urothelial Cancer. NCT03406650 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Durvalumab Plus Tremelimumab With Concurrent Radiotherapy for Localized Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer Treated With a Selective Bladder Preservation Approach NCT03702179 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.