Durvalumab Plus Olaparib Administered Prior to Surgery of Resectable Urothelial Bladder Cancer (NEODURVARIB)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 26% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-03-16, after 2018-11-16 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-03-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancertherapysurgerysubjectsof study
Phrases that lowered it: periodmalescreeningclinicalparticipants -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 4380 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 3 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 7 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 14.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 4380 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2046 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 85.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 23.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- durvalumab, olaparib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Neoadjuvant Durvalumab Alone Versus Durvalumab With Olaparib in Patients Ineligible for Cisplatin With Muscle-Invasive Urothelial Carcinoma of the Bladder Followed by Radical Cystectomy NCT04579133 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
- Durvalumab (MEDI4736) and TREmelimumab in NEOadjuvant Bladder Cancer Patients (DUTRENEO) NCT03472274 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
- Durvalumab And Radiation Therapy Followed by Adjuvant Durvalumab in Patients With Urothelial Cancer (T2-4 N0-2 M0) of the Bladder NCT02891161 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
- Chemoradiation Followed by Durvalumab in Poor Risk and/or Elderly Patients With Stage III NSCLC NCT04441138 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
- FRAIL-IMMUNE (GORTEC 2018-03) - Combination of Durvalumab With Carboplatin/Paclitaxel NCT03723967 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.