Durvalumab (MEDI4736) and TREmelimumab in NEOadjuvant Bladder Cancer Patients (DUTRENEO)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 30% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-04-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerhepatitischronicneoadjuvantcell
  Phrases that lowered it: mgfemalerheumatoidarthritisto evaluate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 21.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 41806 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Durvalumab Plus Olaparib Administered Prior to Surgery of Resectable Urothelial Bladder Cancer (NEODURVARIB) NCT03534492 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Durvalumab and Standard Chemotherapy Before Surgery in Treating Patients With Variant Histology Bladder Cancer NCT03912818 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
• Evaluating Immune Therapy, Durvalumab (MEDI4736) With Tremelimumab for Metastatic, Non-transitional Cell Carcinoma of the Urinary Tract NCT03430895 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
• Neoadjuvant Durvalumab Alone Versus Durvalumab With Olaparib in Patients Ineligible for Cisplatin With Muscle-Invasive Urothelial Carcinoma of the Bladder Followed by Radical Cystectomy NCT04579133 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• A Trial of Durvalumab and Tremelimumab in Combination With SBRT in Patients With Metastatic Cancer NCT03212469 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.