Topical Non-Aromatic Very Rich in Steranes (NAVS) Naphthalan for the Treatment of Oral Mucosal Diseases

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (81 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientsstageironal18 years
  Phrases that lowered it: topicalparticipantsmedical historyoralinflammatory
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 86.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Therapeutic Effects of Ibuprofen, Diphenhydramine and Aluminium MgS on Recurrent Aphthous Stomatitis NCT01293968 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• Intra-oral Treatment of OLP With Rivelin®-CLO Patches NCT03592342 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• Topical Hyaluronic Acid and Recurrent Aphthous Stomatitis. NCT04265001 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• Systemic Zinc Sulphate in Treatment of Recurrent Aphthous Ulcerations:A Doubleblind, Placebo Controled Study NCT01210014 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Effectiveness and Safety of Lactobacillus Rhamnosus Lcr35® in the Treatment of Recurrent Aphthous Stomatitis NCT02789605 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.