Study to Evaluate Effectiveness and Safety in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Psoriasis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (240 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-11-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: tumorhas receivedplustreatedmonths
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andmoderatestudy medicationto evaluate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 539 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 92 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 70 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Effectiveness and Safety of BMS-986165 Compared to Placebo and Active Comparator in Participants With Psoriasis NCT03624127 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• An Investigational Study to Evaluate Experimental Medication BMS-986165 Compared to Placebo and a Currently Available Treatment in Participants With Moderate-to-Severe Plaque Psoriasis NCT03611751 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A Study of Experimental Medication BMS-986251, Taken by Mouth, in Healthy Participants and Patients With Average to Very Serious Psoriasis NCT03329885 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials terminated
• Safety Study of BMS-986202 in Healthy Subjects and to Treat Psoriasis NCT02763969 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• An Investigational Study to Evaluate Experimental Medication BMS-986165 in Japanese Participants With Moderate-to-Severe Psoriasis NCT03924427 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.