An Investigational Study to Evaluate Experimental Medication BMS-986165 Compared to Placebo and a Currently Available Treatment in Participants With Moderate-to-Severe Plaque Psoriasis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (238 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: bmsactivetherapyinfectiondisease
  Phrases that lowered it: psoriasismoderateplaqueto severesubjects
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 19.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 124 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 626 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 19361 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Effectiveness and Safety of BMS-986165 Compared to Placebo and Active Comparator in Participants With Psoriasis NCT03624127 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• An Investigational Study to Evaluate Experimental Medication BMS-986165 in Japanese Participants With Moderate-to-Severe Psoriasis NCT03924427 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate Effectiveness and Safety in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Psoriasis NCT02931838 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Effectiveness and Safety of BMS-986322 in Participants With Moderate-to-Severe Psoriasis NCT05730725 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• An Investigational Study to Evaluate Experimental Medication BMS-986165 Compared to Placebo in Participants With Plaque Psoriasis (POETYK-PSO-3) in Mainland China, Taiwan, and South Korea NCT04167462 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.