Zika Virus Purified Inactivated Vaccine (ZPIV) Accelerated Vaccination Schedule Study

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (340 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-06-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: caresubjectseizureeffectiveplacebo controlled
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantasthmathe trialvaccine
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety, Immunogenicity, and Dose Ranging Study of Inactivated Zika Virus Vaccine in Healthy Participants NCT03343626 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• Safety and Immunogenicity of the Live Attenuated Zika Vaccine rZIKV/D4Δ30-713 in Flavivirus-naïve Adults NCT03611946 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• ZIKA Vaccine in Naive Subjects NCT02952833 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• VRC 320: A Phase I, Randomized Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Safety and Immunogenicity of a Zika Virus DNA Vaccine, VRC-ZKADNA090-00-VP, Administered Via Needle and Syringe or Needle-free Injector, PharmaJet, inHealthy Adults NCT02996461 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Phase 1, First-in-human, Double-blinded, Randomized, Placebo-controlled Trial of a Zika Virus Purified Inactivated Vaccine (ZPIV) With Alum Adjuvant in Healthy Flavivirus-naive and Flavivirus-Primed Subjects. NCT02963909 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.