ZIKA Vaccine in Naive Subjects
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 4% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 4% of the time (217 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-12-05, after 2016-10-14 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-12-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: definedpriorcellulnmonths
Phrases that lowered it: vaccinevaccinationimmunogenicitydays beforehealthy -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
-
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 110 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor's past trials: 1097 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, infectious disease: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 49 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1097 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 6.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 110 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Phase I, Randomized, Double-blinded, Placebo-Controlled Dose De-escalation Study to Evaluate Safety and Immunogenicity of Alum Adjuvanted Zika Virus Purified Inactivated Vaccine (ZPIV) in Adults in a Flavivirus Endemic Area NCT03008122 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- A Phase 1, First-in-human, Double-blinded, Randomized, Placebo-controlled Trial of a Zika Virus Purified Inactivated Vaccine (ZPIV) With Alum Adjuvant in Healthy Flavivirus-naive and Flavivirus-Primed Subjects. NCT02963909 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- VRC 320: A Phase I, Randomized Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Safety and Immunogenicity of a Zika Virus DNA Vaccine, VRC-ZKADNA090-00-VP, Administered Via Needle and Syringe or Needle-free Injector, PharmaJet, inHealthy Adults NCT02996461 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- Zika Virus Purified Inactivated Vaccine (ZPIV) Accelerated Vaccination Schedule Study NCT02937233 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- Trial of an Inactivated Yellow Fever Virus Vaccine NCT05172544 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.