A Clinical Trial: Adjuvant Low-dose Ipilimumab + Nivolumab After Resection of Melanoma Macrometastases

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stagecancermelanomasubjects withradiation
  Phrases that lowered it: mgdrugallergiesadministrationrna
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 25 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Trial Evaluating the Safety & Efficacy of Intra-Tumoral Ipilimumab in Combination With Intra-venous Nivolumab in Patients With Metastatic Melanoma NCT02857569 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• Selective HDAC6 Inhibitor ACY-241 in Combination With Ipilimumab and Nivolumab NCT02935790 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• A Phase 1b Study of the Selective HDAC Inhibitor Mocetinostat in Combination With Ipilimumab and Nivolumab in Patients With Unresectable Stage III or Stage IV Melanoma NCT03565406 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials terminated
• Low Dose Ipilimumab With Pembrolizumab in Treating Patients With Melanoma That Has Spread to the Brain NCT03873818 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• Ipilimumab vs Ipilimumab Plus Nivolumab in Patients With Stage III-IV Melanoma Who Have Progressed or Relapsed on PD-1 Inhibitor Therapy NCT02731729 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.