Ambroxol in Disease Modification in Parkinson Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: failurecoronarydiseaseparkinsonheart
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantdaylabelevaluate the
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 50 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 80 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 63 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Staccato Apomorphine (AZ-009) in Patients With Parkinson's Disease Experiencing OFF Episodes NCT05979415 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials terminated
• Open-Label Phase 3 Study to Examine the Long-Term Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of APL-130277 for the Acute Treatment of OFF Episodes in Patients With Parkinson's Disease NCT02542696 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• The Effects of Aplindore on the Treatment of Signs and Symptoms of Parkinson's Disease NCT00623324 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of anle138b in Parkinson's Disease NCT04685265 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• A Placebo- and Active Controlled Study of Preladenant in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Parkinson's Disease (P04938) NCT01155466 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.