Open-Label Phase 3 Study to Examine the Long-Term Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of APL-130277 for the Acute Treatment of OFF Episodes in Patients With Parkinson's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-11-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 2.0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: celleffectivebrainpatientstable
  Phrases that lowered it: receiptfemaleopen labelinvestigatorday
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 22 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 98 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 82.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study That Compares the Extent to Which Apomorphine Becomes Available in the Body After Taking Either an Investigational Drug Containing Apomorphine or Apomorphine That is Injected Under the Skin in People With PD Complicated by OFF Episodes NCT03292016 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Staccato Apomorphine (AZ-009) in Patients With Parkinson's Disease Experiencing OFF Episodes NCT05979415 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials terminated
• A Cardiac Safety Study of an Investigational Drug to See How if Affects the Heart in People With Parkinson's Disease Complicated by Motor Fluctuations OFF Episodes NCT03187301 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• Ambroxol in Disease Modification in Parkinson Disease NCT02941822 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• A Study of an Investigational Drug to See How it Affects the People With Parkinson's Disease Complicated by Motor Fluctuations (OFF Episodes) Compared to an Approved Drug Used to Treat People With Parkinson's Disease Complicated by Motor Fluctuations (OFF Episodes) NCT03391882 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.