A Study That Compares the Extent to Which Apomorphine Becomes Available in the Body After Taking Either an Investigational Drug Containing Apomorphine or Apomorphine That is Injected Under the Skin in People With PD Complicated by OFF Episodes

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-03-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patients mustparkinson diseasedementiastablebrain
  Phrases that lowered it: visitscreeningmalepharmacokineticsingle dose
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 42.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 19 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 113 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability Study of APL-130277 for the Acute Treatment of OFF Episodes in Patients With Parkinson's Disease NCT02469090 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• Open-Label Phase 3 Study to Examine the Long-Term Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of APL-130277 for the Acute Treatment of OFF Episodes in Patients With Parkinson's Disease NCT02542696 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• Clinical Trial of Apomorphine Subcutaneous Infusion in Patients With Advanced Parkinson's Disease NCT02006121 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• A Study of an Investigational Drug to See How it Affects the People With Parkinson's Disease Complicated by Motor Fluctuations (OFF Episodes) Compared to an Approved Drug Used to Treat People With Parkinson's Disease Complicated by Motor Fluctuations (OFF Episodes) NCT03391882 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Staccato Apomorphine (AZ-009) in Patients With Parkinson's Disease Experiencing OFF Episodes NCT05979415 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.