Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability Study of APL-130277 for the Acute Treatment of OFF Episodes in Patients With Parkinson's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-12-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: parkinson diseasepdto determinedementiamotor
  Phrases that lowered it: the efficacysafetymaleclinical trialvisit
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 2.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 19 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 96 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Examine APL-130277 in Patients With Parkinson's Disease NCT02228590 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• A Study That Compares the Extent to Which Apomorphine Becomes Available in the Body After Taking Either an Investigational Drug Containing Apomorphine or Apomorphine That is Injected Under the Skin in People With PD Complicated by OFF Episodes NCT03292016 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Clinical Trial of Apomorphine Subcutaneous Infusion in Patients With Advanced Parkinson's Disease NCT02006121 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of Aplindore in Patients With Early Parkinson Disease NCT00809302 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
• Safety, Tolerability, PK and PD Study of Neu-120 in the Treatment of Levodopa-induced Dyskinesia NCT00607451 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.