A Study to Examine APL-130277 in Patients With Parkinson's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-11-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 1.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: tolerabilityparkinson diseasedementiastablestage
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacyand safetysafety oftrialreceipt
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 80 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 90 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 77.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 12 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability Study of APL-130277 for the Acute Treatment of OFF Episodes in Patients With Parkinson's Disease NCT02469090 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of Aplindore in Patients With Early Parkinson Disease NCT00809302 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
• The Effects of Aplindore on the Treatment of Signs and Symptoms of Parkinson's Disease NCT00623324 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• A Study That Compares the Extent to Which Apomorphine Becomes Available in the Body After Taking Either an Investigational Drug Containing Apomorphine or Apomorphine That is Injected Under the Skin in People With PD Complicated by OFF Episodes NCT03292016 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Clinical Trial of Apomorphine Subcutaneous Infusion in Patients With Advanced Parkinson's Disease NCT02006121 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.