Efficacy and Safety Study of Aplindore in Patients With Early Parkinson Disease
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 26% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2009-10-31, after 2008-12-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 100% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: parkinsonpdscoreevidencesubjects with
Phrases that lowered it: drugbloodclinicalexaminationgood -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 30 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- not given (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 30 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 100% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- The Effects of Aplindore on the Treatment of Signs and Symptoms of Parkinson's Disease NCT00623324 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
- A Study to Examine APL-130277 in Patients With Parkinson's Disease NCT02228590 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
- Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability Study of APL-130277 for the Acute Treatment of OFF Episodes in Patients With Parkinson's Disease NCT02469090 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
- A Placebo- and Active Controlled Study of Preladenant in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Parkinson's Disease (P04938) NCT01155466 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
- A Dose Finding Study of Preladenant (SCH 420814) for the Treatment of Parkinson's Disease (PD) in Japanese Patients (P06402) NCT01294800 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.