SAKK 08/15 - PROMET - Salvage Radiotherapy +/- Metformin for Patients With Prostate Cancer After Prostatectomy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerbowelmetforminsyndromeadenocarcinoma
  Phrases that lowered it: prostatepetsmall cellhippsa
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 199519 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 61 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 62.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 12 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Metformin Hydrochloride as First-Line Therapy in Treating Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Prostate Cancer NCT01243385 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Bicalutamide With or Without Metformin for Biochemical Recurrence in Overweight or Obese Prostate Cancer Patients NCT02614859 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Investigation of Metformin in Patients With Castration Resistant Prostate Cancer in Combination With Enzalutamide vs. Enzalutamide Alone NCT02640534 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Pre-operative Metformin in Prostate Cancer NCT00881725 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Impact of the Addition of Metformin to Abiraterone in Metastatic Prostate Cancer Patients NCT01677897 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.