Impact of Nilotinib on Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Biomarkers in Parkinson's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: headbrainchroniccancerdisease
  Phrases that lowered it: participantjointdailypharmacokineticsparticipants
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 32.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 90 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 72.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 14 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 89 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Impact of Nilotinib on Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Biomarkers in Dementia With Lewy Bodies NCT04002674 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• Nilotinib in Parkinson's Disease NCT03205488 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• Impact of Nilotinib on Safety, Biomarkers and Clinical Outcomes in Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT02947893 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• Impact of Bosutinib on Safety, Tolerability, Biomarkers and Clinical Outcomes in Dementia With Lewy Bodies NCT03888222 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Safety Study of a Glycogen Synthase Kinase 3 (GSK3) Inhibitor in Patients With Alzheimer´s Disease NCT00948259 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.