A Phase 1/2 Study of Durvalumab(MEDI4736) and Tremelimumab in Chinese Patients With Advanced Malignancies
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-11-26, after 2016-12-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-11-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: metastaticheartsafety tolerabilitydiseasetolerability pharmacokinetics
Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluateopen labelpharmacokineticsreceipt -
Maximum age: 130 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 1415 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 136 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Allocation: non randomized (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 130 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1415 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 8.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 136 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 158 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 108 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 97.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 24.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- durvalumab, tremelimumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- GC 2nd Line Durvalumab(MEDI4736)/Tremelimumab Plus Paclitaxel Study NCT03751761 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
- An Open-Label, Multi-Centre, Study to Assess the Safety of Fixed-Dose Durvalumab + Tremelimumab Combination Therapy or Durvalumab Monotherapy in Advanced Solid Malignancies. NCT03084471 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
- Pulmonary sarcomatoid_MEDI4736+Treme NCT03022500 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
- Tremelimumab and Durvalumab With or Without Radiation Therapy in Patients With Relapsed Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02701400 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- A Trial of Durvalumab and Tremelimumab in Combination With SBRT in Patients With Metastatic Cancer NCT03212469 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.