Phase II/III Study Comparing Chemoradiotherapy With Radiotherapy in Elderly Patients With Esophageal or Esophagogastric Cancer - 3JECROG P-01
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 22% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (131 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-04-30, after 2016-10-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: or equalequal toradiationcancergreater
Phrases that lowered it: and safetyelderlysafety ofhistory oftreatment -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Collaborators: 10 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 28 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 10 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 70 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 23 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 8.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 28 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Simultaneous Integrated Boost Radiotherapy and Concurrent Chemotherapy for Locally Advanced Esophageal Carcinoma NCT02429622 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
- Radiotherapy Combined With S-1/DDP for Elderly Esophageal Squamous Cell Cancer. NCT02606916 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
- Study of Simultaneous Modulated Accelerated Radiation Therapy Concurrent With Chemotherapy to Treat Esophageal Cancer NCT01670409 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
- S-1 and Radiotherapy in Elderly Patients With Esophageal Cancer NCT01175447 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
- Postoperative Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy Versus Radiotherapy Alone for Patients With Locoregionally Advanced Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT03600831 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.