Radiotherapy Combined With S-1/DDP for Elderly Esophageal Squamous Cell Cancer.
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-08-31, after 2015-07-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: carcinomasquamous cellimagingtherapyloss
Phrases that lowered it: timessingle109elderlyupper -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 1.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 105 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 77 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 70 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 77 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 1.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 105 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study of Simultaneous Modulated Accelerated Radiation Therapy Concurrent With Chemotherapy to Treat Esophageal Cancer NCT01670409 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
- Phase II/III Study Comparing Chemoradiotherapy With Radiotherapy in Elderly Patients With Esophageal or Esophagogastric Cancer - 3JECROG P-01 NCT02979691 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
- Study of S-1 in Combination With Radiotherapy in Esophageal Cancer NCT01831531 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
- S-1 Concurrent With Radiotherapy Versus Radiotherapy for Elderly Patients With Esophageal Cancer NCT02813967 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
- Study of Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy for Locally Advanced Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT02964455 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.