A Trial to Assess the Safety and Efficacy of Prophylactic TicagrelOr With Acetylsalicylic Acid Versus CLopidogrel With Acetylsalicylic Acid in the Development of Cerebrovascular EMbolic Events During TAVI
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (381 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-02-01, after 2016-12-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-02-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: subjectsubjects30severedialysis
Phrases that lowered it: ulnaminotransferasecellsdailyabsolute -
Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 70178 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 73.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 28 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 5 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 343106 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 70178 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 73.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- aspirin, clopidogrel, ticagrelor
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Ticagrelor Versus Clopidogrel in Carotid Artery Stenting NCT02677545 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
- Apixaban for Early Prevention of Recurrent Embolic Stroke and Hemorrhagic Transformation NCT02283294 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
- Compare Ticagrelor vs Clopidogrel on the Reduction of Arterial Stiffness and Wave Reflectionsin Patients With CAD. NCT02071212 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
- Edoxaban Treatment Versus Vitamin K Antagonist in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention NCT02866175 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
- THALES - Acute STroke or Transient IscHaemic Attack Treated With TicAgreLor and ASA for PrEvention of Stroke and Death NCT03354429 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.