Testing an Active Form of Tamoxifen (4-hydroxytamoxifen) Delivered Through Breast Skin to Control Ductal Carcinoma in Situ (DCIS) of the Breast

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-01-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancereffectivethis studytherapyheart
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsaminotransferasemultiplemaleupper
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 22.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 107 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 80.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 381 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Oral Tamoxifen vs. TamGel vs. Control in Women With Atypical Hyperplasia, Lobular Carcinoma In Situ, or Increased Breast Cancer Risk NCT04570956 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• 4-Hydroxytamoxifen or Tamoxifen Citrate in Treating Women With Newly Diagnosed Ductal Breast Carcinoma in Situ NCT00952731 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• The PROMISE Study: Duavee in Women With DCIS NCT02694809 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Afimoxifene in Reducing the Risk of Breast Cancer in Women With Mammographically Dense Breast NCT03063619 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• Genotype and Phenotype Guided Supplementation of TAMoxifen Standard Therapy With ENDOXifen in Breast Cancer Patients NCT03931928 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.