The PROMISE Study: Duavee in Women With DCIS

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-06-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: determinecancerpatients muststudy ispatient
  Phrases that lowered it: healthystudy willdrugeffect ofthe study
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 23.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 367 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 100 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 79 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 74.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 3.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Testing an Active Form of Tamoxifen (4-hydroxytamoxifen) Delivered Through Breast Skin to Control Ductal Carcinoma in Situ (DCIS) of the Breast NCT02993159 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Biological and Clinical Effects of Palbociclib With Ovarian Suppression and Letrozole in the Neoadjuvant Treatment of Breast Cancer NCT03628066 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Preoperative Window Opportunity Study With Giredestrant or Tamoxifen in Premenopausal Women With ER+/HER2[-] & Ki67≥10% NCT05659563 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Oral Tamoxifen vs. TamGel vs. Control in Women With Atypical Hyperplasia, Lobular Carcinoma In Situ, or Increased Breast Cancer Risk NCT04570956 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• A Phase II Randomized Study Evaluating the Biological and Clinical Effects of the Combination of Palbociclib With Letrozole as Neoadjuvant Therapy in Post-Menopausal Women With Estrogen-Receptor Positive Primary Breast Cancer NCT02296801 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.