Biological and Clinical Effects of Palbociclib With Ovarian Suppression and Letrozole in the Neoadjuvant Treatment of Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 29% for any early termination, 21% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-01-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: carcinomacancergreaterchroniculn
  Phrases that lowered it: clinicalbreast cancerher2within weeksphysical
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 64.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 14608 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 50762 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 12 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase II Randomized Study Evaluating the Biological and Clinical Effects of the Combination of Palbociclib With Letrozole as Neoadjuvant Therapy in Post-Menopausal Women With Estrogen-Receptor Positive Primary Breast Cancer NCT02296801 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Neoadjuvant Biomarker ResearcH Study of Palbociclib Combined With Endocrine Therapy in Estrogen Receptor Positive/HER2 Negative Breast CAncer (NeoRHEA) NCT03065621 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Neoadjuvant Study of Palbociclib in Combination With Letrozole and Trastuzumab in Stage II-III ER+ HER2+ Breast Cancer NCT02907918 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
• Neoadjuvant Letrozole and Palbociclib in Patients With Stage II-IIIB Breast Cancer, HR+, HER2 - NCT03819010 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
• A Study of Palbociclib in Combination With Fulvestrant or Tamoxifen as Treatment for Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02384239 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.