Phase 2B Upper Extremity Nerve Block Study

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-03-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellbreast cancermetastaticconcurrentin subjects
  Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticsor suspectedknown ormass indexbody mass
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 68.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 39238 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase 3 Study of Local Administration of SKY0402 for Postoperative Analgesia in Subject Undergoing Breast Augmentation NCT00813111 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials terminated
• Study to Evaluate EB-001 in Reducing Musculoskeletal Pain NCT03193593 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of the Safety and Efficacy of a Single Dose of SKY0402 in Subjects Undergoing Augmentation Mammoplasty NCT01206608 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of the Efficacy and Safety of HTX-011 for Postoperative Analgesia Following Abdominoplasty Surgery NCT02689258 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Safety, and Pharmacokinetics of Brachial Plexus Block With EXPAREL in Shoulder Surgery NCT02713230 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.