Oral Decitabine (ASTX727) and Durvalumab in Recurrent and/or Metastatic Head and Neck Cancer Patients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 23% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-09-24, after 2017-03-20 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-09-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: subjects withazacitidineand neckhead andmetastatic
Phrases that lowered it: patients whoparticipantfirst dosemmopen -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 47.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 192 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 675 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 16.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 192 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 4 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 9387 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1571 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 98.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 47.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- azacitidine, decitabine, durvalumab, tremelimumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Durvalumab (MEDI4736) and Tremelimumab in Hormone Receptor-positive, Hypermutated Metastatic Breast Cancer Identified by Whole Exome Sequencing NCT03608865 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
- SGI-110 Plus Durvalumab/Tremelimumab in SCLC NCT03085849 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
- Immunotherapy and SBRT for Metastatic Head and Neck Carcinomas NCT03283605 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- A Trial of Durvalumab and Tremelimumab in Combination With SBRT in Patients With Metastatic Cancer NCT03212469 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- NIVolumab in Subjects With Recurrent or Metastatic Platinum-refrACTORy SCCHN NCT05802290 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.