Aldosterone bloCkade for Health Improvement EValuation in End-stage Renal Disease
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 24% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-03-14, after 2017-07-07 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-03-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: heartfailuredeterminedonorpatients
Phrases that lowered it: blood pressureinteractionbodyindividualshealth -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
-
Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 55243 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 17 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 78 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 14.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 17 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 55243 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 9400 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 81.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 15.9%
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- spironolactone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Mineralocorticoid Receptor Antagonists in End Stage Renal Disease NCT01691053 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
- ALdosterone Antagonist Chronic HEModialysis Interventional Survival Trial NCT01848639 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
- Mineralocorticoid Receptor Antagonists (MRA) in Heart Failure (HF) and Loop Diuretic Resistance NCT02585843 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
- Safety and Cardiovascular Efficacy of Spironolactone in Dialysis-Dependent ESRD Trial NCT02285920 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
- Spironolactone in the Treatment of Heart Failure NCT04727073 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.