Evaluation of the Effect of a Nasal Allergen Challenge With Dermatophagoides Farinae Extract on Nasal Airway Inflammation in Allergic Individuals, Comparing E-cigarette Users to Cigarette Smokers and Non-smokers.
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 7% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (918 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2018-04-23, after 2017-03-27 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-04-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: diabetesdiagnosispriorinability tosubjects must
Phrases that lowered it: asthmaallergennasalmoderateeffect of -
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 123 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor's past trials: 395 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Maximum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- basic science (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 50 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 395 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 123 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- T Cell Effector and Regulatory Mechanisms in Asthma NCT01612936 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- Induced Tolerogenic Dendritic Cells as Modulators of Allergic Asthma NCT01711593 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- Steroids In Eosinophil Negative Asthma NCT02066298 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- A Study of the Effects of Single Dose Corticosteroids on Response to Allergens NCT00828061 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- A Study of Inhalation of 20,000 EU CCRE in Normal Volunteers Compared to Allergic Asthmatic Individuals NCT00839124 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.