The Efficacy and Safety of Secukinumab in Patients With Ichthyoses

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (81 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 23.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: priorsubject hashourssubjects mustplacebo
  Phrases that lowered it: femaleevaluate theto evaluatesubjectsperiod
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 25.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 100 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 361 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Imsidolimab (ANB019) in the Treatment of Participants With Ichthyosis NCT04697056 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials terminated
• A Six Week Topical Cream Study for Subjects With Ichthyosis Vulgaris NCT03173547 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• A Safety and Tolerability Study of Topical PAT-001 in Congenital Ichthyosis NCT02864082 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• The ASCEND Study: Evaluating TMB-001 in the Treatment of RXLI or ARCI Ichthyosis NCT05295732 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• Ruxolitinib in Seborrheic Dermatitis NCT05787860 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.