Phase I Dose-escalation Study of Fractionated 177Lu-PSMA-617 for Progressive Metastatic CRPC

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 30% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-06-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: dlpatients mustserumstable000
  Phrases that lowered it: prostatedruggrouprespiratoryandrogen
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 25.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 60% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 99 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 45 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 175 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• 177Lu-J591 and 177Lu-PSMA-617 Combination for mCRPC NCT03545165 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• [177Lu]Ludotadipep Treatment in Patients With Metastatic Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer. NCT04509557 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• The Present Study Aims to Compare Patients Who Receive the Investigational Product (177Lu-DOTA-rosopatamab) Plus Standard of Care, in Comparison to Standard of Care Only NCT04876651 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials terminated
• A Biomarker Study of Standard-of-care Radium-223 Chloride for Metastatic Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer NCT02346526 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• I-131-1095 Radioligand Plus Enzalutamide vs Enzalutamide for mCRPC That Progressed During Abiraterone (ARROW). NCT03939689 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.