Nal-IRI and 5-FU Compared to 5-FU in Patients With Cholangio- and Gallbladder Carcinoma Previously Treated With Gemcitabine-based Therapies

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-03-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientsubjectpriorbreastpatients
  Phrases that lowered it: accordingdays before20diseasesclinical
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 30% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 8653 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 92.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 10 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Nal-IRI With 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) and Leucovorin or Gemcitabine Plus Cisplatin in Advanced Biliary-tract Cancer NCT03044587 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• 2nd-line Therapy With Nal-IRI After Gem/Nab-pac in Advanced Pancreatic Cancer - Predictive Role of 1st-line Therapy NCT03468335 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• Regorafenib Plus Gemcitabine in Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer NCT02383433 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Napabucasin (BBI-608) in Combination With FOLFIRI in Adult Patients With Previously Treated Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT02753127 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• Liposomal Irinotecan in Combination With Oxaliplatin, Leucovorin, and 5-fluorouracil for Patients With Locally Advanced Pancreatic Carcinoma: NCT03861702 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.