Pilot Study of Cabazitaxel and Paclitaxel in HER2 Negative Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-03-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chemotherapycancerpaclitaxelulndisease
  Phrases that lowered it: randomisedvaccinerandomisationwithin weeksthe trial
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 99 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Cabazitaxel in Patients With Metastatic Breast Cancer Previously Treated With Taxanes NCT01693549 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• 8 Continuous vs 8 Intermittent Cycles in First and Second Line in HER2/Neu Neg Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01935492 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• Chemotherapy and Lapatinib or Trastuzumab in Treating Women With HER2/Neu-Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT00667251 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• Studying the Benefits of Adjuvant Sequential vs. Combined Taxane Based Chemotherapy, Followed by Different Biological Treatment Strategies in Early, HER2-positive Breast Cancer NCT00670878 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Neoadjuvant Paclitaxel Versus BIBF 1120 Priming Followed by BIBF 1120 Plus Paclitaxel in Early HER-2 Negative Breast Cancer With Proteomic and Dynamic Imaging Correlates NCT01484080 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.