Phase 2 Trial of Nab-paclitaxel Plus S-1 vs Gemcitabine Plus Cisplatin as 1-line Chemotherapy of Patients With Local Advanced and/or Metastatic Transitional Cell Carcinoma of Urothelial Tract

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticadjuvantmetastasesprioruln
  Phrases that lowered it: patients whoefficacy andand safetythe efficacysafety of
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 38 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 81948 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 13586 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• JAVLOR Association Study in CDDP-unfit Patients With Advanced Transitional Cell Carcinoma: Gemcitabine Versus Carboplatin NCT01599013 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Eribulin Mesylate Administered in Combination With Gemcitabine Plus Cisplatin Versus Gemcitabine Plus Cisplatin Alone as First-Line Therapy for Locally Advanced or Metastatic Bladder Cancer NCT01126749 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
• A Trial With Vinflunine in Patients With Metastatic Bladder Cancer and Impaired Renal Function NCT02665039 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
• Gemzar, Cisp, Sunitinib Urothelial Ca NCT00821327 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Phase I Study With Sorafenib in Addition to Vinflunine in Metastatic Transitional Cell Carcinoma of the Urothelial Tract NCT01844947 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.