Phase I Study With Sorafenib in Addition to Vinflunine in Metastatic Transitional Cell Carcinoma of the Urothelial Tract

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-06-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chemotherapycellprostateulnplatinum
  Phrases that lowered it: receivedpatients whoadvancedvisitdays before
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• JAVLOR Association Study in CDDP-unfit Patients With Advanced Transitional Cell Carcinoma: Gemcitabine Versus Carboplatin NCT01599013 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Pazopanib and Vinflunine in Urothelial Cancer of the Bladder NCT01265940 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
• A Trial With Vinflunine in Patients With Metastatic Bladder Cancer and Impaired Renal Function NCT02665039 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
• Phase 2 Trial of Nab-paclitaxel Plus S-1 vs Gemcitabine Plus Cisplatin as 1-line Chemotherapy of Patients With Local Advanced and/or Metastatic Transitional Cell Carcinoma of Urothelial Tract NCT03051373 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• Clinical Trial With Vinflunine as Maintenance Therapy in Metastatic Urothelial Cancer NCT01529411 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.