Metabolic Change in Prostate Cancer Bone Metastases on 68Ga-HBED-CC-PSMA PET/CT Following Radium-223 Therapy
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 19% for any early termination, 18% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-07-15, after 2018-03-22 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-07-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: canceror equalequal topatientshead and
Phrases that lowered it: prostatemaledrugpetcastration -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 100 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 52.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 3.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: basic science (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- basic science (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 100 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 6 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 16.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 9 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1205 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 141 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 52.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 3.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- radium
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study to Assess How Radium-223 Distributes in the Body of Patients With Prostate Cancer Which Spread to the Bones NCT04521361 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Standard Dose Versus High Dose and Versus Extended Standard Dose Radium-223 Dichloride in Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer Metastatic to the Bone NCT02023697 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
- Radium-223 Dichloride Asian Population Study in the Treatment of CRPC Patients With Bone Metastasis NCT01810770 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- RAdium-223 and SABR Versus SABR for Oligometastatic Prostate Cancers NCT04037358 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
- A Randomized Phase IIa Efficacy and Safety Study of Radium-223 Dichloride With Abiraterone Acetate or Enzalutamide in Metastatic Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer (CRPC) NCT02034552 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.